Back in November 2020 I wrote a blog, Nothing Is More Powerful Than An Idea Whose Time Has Come, in which I made the case for a Great Rotation across equity markets where the prior winners, growth stocks, would give way to value stocks which would outperform going forward.

In its latest economic outlook, the OECD increased its expectations for global GDP. For 2020, the improvement is minimal, reflecting an upward revision, in real GDP, from -4.5% to -4.2%. But beyond that, growing economic momentum should boost global growth to pre-pandemic levels, estimated at 4.2% in 2021 and 3.7% in 2022.

Markets are ebullient, and they have every reason to be.

The narrative, heading into the US election, was a ‘Blue Wave’ victory for the Democrats. Polls and betting odds favoured a Biden win and a Senate majority and investors positioned accordingly.

The ACUMEN Portfolios continued their strong run throughout October, largely outperforming the market composite benchmark and IA sectors (used for peer group comparison purposes) which lost ground across the board.

With the US election just 8 days away, financial markets are following the polls and pricing in a Biden win.

The following is an abbreviated version of my recent article ‘A Deep Dive Into… UK Equities’ for Investment Week magazine. Follow the link and read my views on page 17.

Last week the FTSE Russell decided to include Chinese government bonds in its flagship World Government Bond Index (WGBI). The decision follows similar moves, from JP Morgan and Bloomberg, and a failed attempt to do so just one year prior which resulted in a number of reforms, to increase accessibility and currency trading options, that ultimately paved the way for benchmark admission.

In last week’s blog we discussed the ‘Nasdaq whale’, Softbank, and the role it played, alongside an army of retail investors, driving tech prices ever higher prior to the recent correction. These short-term ‘technical’ flows are driven by the options market as traders look to hedge their underlying exposure, amplifying moves both lower and higher.

Those stocks that outperformed during the corona crisis are the same ‘winners’ that outperformed before the crisis.

The recovery in US equity prices, from the corona crisis, has been one of the most rapid in history.

Commodities are nothing if not cyclical. They rise and fall in value with remarkable consistency over time.

Quantitative easing, or QE, is where a central bank creates money to buy bonds. The goal is to keep interest rates low and to stimulate the economy during periods of economic stress.

In January 2019 Jerome Powell pivoted from a policy of interest rate increases and balance sheet cuts to interest rate cuts and, later that year, balance sheet expansion.

Over the last decade, the Fed has increasingly resorted to unconventional monetary policy, such as quantitative easing, or QE, to stimulate the economy.

One question I get from advisers and clients, more than any other, is why global equity markets have bounced back so far.

In the early stages of the Corona Crisis of 2020, the global economy faced a liquidity crisis.

In an unprecedented day in the history of oil trading the price of the front month contract for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil fell below zero to -$37.63.