Latest blogs and Market Updates

ROTATIONS & DIVIDENDS

ROTATIONS & DIVIDENDS

Back in November 2020 I wrote a blog, Nothing Is More Powerful Than An Idea Whose Time Has Come, in which I made the case for a Great Rotation across equity markets where the prior winners, growth stocks, would give way to value stocks which would outperform going forward.

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What we learn from history…

What we learn from history…

Market crashes and economic downturns are a part of life. Market calamity can occur seemingly out of nowhere and whether it be a dotcom bubble, a financial crisis, Brexit or Covid-19, we can never predict the full impact of a new market crash. We can however forecast that its effect on the markets, and the wider economy, will ultimately be temporary.

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MARKET THOUGHTS

MARKET THOUGHTS

In late February, following the invasion of Ukraine and subsequent market sell off, I wrote a blog (Commentary & Positioning) outlining Tavistock Asset Management’s thoughts. Three months on, financial markets have continued to come under pressure and have weakened further.

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The Commodity Carve-Out

The Commodity Carve-Out

Global markets in 2022 have exhibited abnormal volatility. Inflation readings sit at multiples of central bank targets around the world, and a plethora of rate hiking cycles have begun in attempts to combat this. Muted capital expenditure during the pandemic has left supply chains in tatters, and producers scrambling to secure inputs. When compounded by an invasion involving two hegemonic commodity producers and a pilgrimage towards net-zero carbon emissions, we at Titan believed an environment for sustained commodity outperformance was firmly in place.

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Rise of the Underdog

Rise of the Underdog

In its latest economic outlook, the OECD increased its expectations for global GDP. For 2020, the improvement is minimal, reflecting an upward revision, in real GDP, from -4.5% to -4.2%. But beyond that, growing economic momentum should boost global growth to pre-pandemic levels, estimated at 4.2% in 2021 and 3.7% in 2022.

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The Call-Up

The Call-Up

Last week the FTSE Russell decided to include Chinese government bonds in its flagship World Government Bond Index (WGBI). The decision follows similar moves, from JP Morgan and Bloomberg, and a failed attempt to do so just one year prior which resulted in a number of reforms, to increase accessibility and currency trading options, that ultimately paved the way for benchmark admission.

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Technical Perspectives

Technical Perspectives

In last week’s blog we discussed the ‘Nasdaq whale’, Softbank, and the role it played, alongside an army of retail investors, driving tech prices ever higher prior to the recent correction. These short-term ‘technical’ flows are driven by the options market as traders look to hedge their underlying exposure, amplifying moves both lower and higher.

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A Speech For The History Books

A Speech For The History Books

In a speech for the history books, last week Fed chairman Jerome Powell announced a significant change to the way it conducts monetary policy by formally announcing ‘average inflation targeting’. This means the Fed will now allow inflation to overshoot its official 2% target to compensate for prior years where inflation failed to reach that level.

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Room to Run

Room to Run

Despite the fact the coronavirus has plunged many countries into recession, global equity markets are now back at all-time highs, as measured by the Bloomberg World Exchange Market Capitalisation index.

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Rising Phoenix

Rising Phoenix

In The Return Of Inflation (5th June 2020) we made the case for a transition from the existing deflationary narrative to one in which markets start to price-in inflation.

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Past performance should not be seen as an indication of future performance.

Tavistock Asset Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority with FRN 955719. Tavistock Asset Management Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of Tavistock Investments Plc. Tavistock Asset Management, 1 Queen’s Square, Ascot Business Park, Lyndhurst Road, Ascot, Berkshire SL5 9FE +44 (0) 1753 867000. https://tavistockam.com  –  thinking@tavistockam.com

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